PSYCHOLOGY COLLOQUIA
University of California, San Diego
                        

The Department of Psychology is Honored
to Present a Talk by

Philip Tetlock
University of California, Berkeley

"EXPERT POLITICAL JUDGMENT: HOW GOOD IS IT? HOW CAN WE KNOW?"

Presented on April 28, 2005

Location: The Crick Conference Room
Mandler Hall, room 3545

Abstract:
Have you ever wondered why so many political disagreements -- be they on national security or trade or welfare policy -- are so intractable? This presentation will report the results of a 20-year research project that solicited the thousands of predictions from hundreds of experts on dozens of countries. The resulting data shed light on fundamental questions: (1) To what extent, does expertise translate into predictive accuracy (how well do experts perform relative to guessing strategies (proverbial dart-throwing chimps), simple statistical models, and more formal time-series and regression models?); (2) How do experts react when futures judged highly likely fail to materialize and futures judged highly unlikely do materialize?; (3) Do data on aggregate expert performance conceal systematic individual differences in both predictive accuracy and willingness to change one's mind in a roughly Bayesian fashion in response to disconfirming evidence?; (4) Is it possible to construct a composite portrait of "good judgment" in complex, path-dependent environments in which there are almost always politically plausible methods of escaping disconfirmation?

For More Information About This Speaker:
Researchers and the general public are both welcome to attend the Psychology department's colloquia. Reservations are not required, and admission is free. If you have any questions regarding the department's colloquium series, then please write to colloquia@psy.ucsd.edu